domingo, 1 de febrero de 2009

Lo que ha de venir para el 2010 , una Stafglacion (estancamiento economico con inflacion) como en los 70 con la depreciacion de los bonos emitidos



Cortesia del Blog Educativo y de Noticias del Lic. Enildo E Rodriguez Nunez MBA PhDP

Santo Domingo RD
1 Febrero del 2009


San Genaro de Nápoles y la crisis mundial

Estamos en las vísperas de una guerra de depreciaciones



En la primera parte de esta entrega (Hoy, 21 de enero de 2009), nos referimos a una viejita napolitana, quien a fines del siglo XIX rezaba en voz alta a San Genaro, pidiéndole larga vida para un príncipe bandido que gobernaba en ese entonces la región. Interpelada por algunos feligreses, la dama adujo que los príncipes anteriores, sin ser un dechado de virtudes, no habían sido tan nefastos como el actual, por lo que sentía miedo sólo de imaginar cómo sería el que vendría después.

Hicimos luego un paralelo entre el pesimismo de la viejita y la crisis que atraviesa hoy la economía mundial.

Explicamos que la voluntad del banco central estadounidense de comprar bonos del Estado norteamericano (lo que equivale a crear dinero inorgánico), unido a su decisión de bajar sustancialmente sus tasas de interés a corto plazo, provocaría tendencias inflacionistas que conducirían al alza de las tasas de interés a largo plazo de los bancos privados, que era precisamente lo que con dichas medidas se pretendía evitar.

Veamos ahora cuáles son las implicaciones de las presiones inflacionistas que tales medidas habrán de provocar.

Esas presiones conducirán a una depreciación del dólar que favorecerá las exportaciones estadounidenses. Las otras potencias industriales (Unión Europea, Japón, China) se verán a su vez impelidas a depreciar sus monedas a fin de proteger sus exportaciones.
Esto significa que estamos en las vísperas de una guerra de depreciaciones muy perniciosa para la economía mundial.

Por otra parte, tomando en cuenta que la inflación constituye por definición una erosión del valor de la moneda, y por ende del valor de toda deuda contraída previamente, la amortización y el pago de intereses de la astronómica deuda estadounidense (agravada por los descabellados gastos militares de George W. Bush), costarán menos, en términos reales, al Estado norteamericano.

Al mismo tiempo, quienes poseen masivamente bonos del Estado americano (en primer lugar China) se encontrarán con activos depreciados a causa de la inflación. Se producirá así un fenómeno similar al ocurrido con los llamados “petrodólares”: acciones y bonos emitidos en dólares que poseían los países productores de petróleo, que perdieron gran parte de su valor a causa de la inflación mundial de los años 70 y principios de los 80.

La inflación que se avecina (podemos anticiparla para 2010) será pues beneficiosa para el Estado norteamericano pero no así para sus acreedores.

El caso de los 70 nos ofrece una lección suplementaria: la superabundancia de dinero (como ocurre en periodos de inflación o como trata de crear actualmente el banco central estadounidense para combatir la recesión) no garantiza la recuperación de la actividad económica.
En aquellos años se produjo lo que se conoce con el nombre de “stagflación”, es decir, estancamiento económico con inflación
.
En el presente, nada nos permite descartar la posibilidad de un nuevo periodo de stagflación.
Todo parece indicar que la actitud pesimista de la viejita napolitana adquiere vigencia hoy, pues ante las perspectivas de inflación, guerra de depreciaciones y espectro de stagflación, no se vislumbra un mañana mejor en el horizonte de la economía mundial.

Por Rafael Fiallo
')

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