domingo, 1 de febrero de 2009

Lo que ha de venir para el 2010 , una Stafglacion (estancamiento economico con inflacion) como en los 70 con la depreciacion de los bonos emitidos



Cortesia del Blog Educativo y de Noticias del Lic. Enildo E Rodriguez Nunez MBA PhDP

Santo Domingo RD
1 Febrero del 2009


San Genaro de Nápoles y la crisis mundial

Estamos en las vísperas de una guerra de depreciaciones



En la primera parte de esta entrega (Hoy, 21 de enero de 2009), nos referimos a una viejita napolitana, quien a fines del siglo XIX rezaba en voz alta a San Genaro, pidiéndole larga vida para un príncipe bandido que gobernaba en ese entonces la región. Interpelada por algunos feligreses, la dama adujo que los príncipes anteriores, sin ser un dechado de virtudes, no habían sido tan nefastos como el actual, por lo que sentía miedo sólo de imaginar cómo sería el que vendría después.

Hicimos luego un paralelo entre el pesimismo de la viejita y la crisis que atraviesa hoy la economía mundial.

Explicamos que la voluntad del banco central estadounidense de comprar bonos del Estado norteamericano (lo que equivale a crear dinero inorgánico), unido a su decisión de bajar sustancialmente sus tasas de interés a corto plazo, provocaría tendencias inflacionistas que conducirían al alza de las tasas de interés a largo plazo de los bancos privados, que era precisamente lo que con dichas medidas se pretendía evitar.

Veamos ahora cuáles son las implicaciones de las presiones inflacionistas que tales medidas habrán de provocar.

Esas presiones conducirán a una depreciación del dólar que favorecerá las exportaciones estadounidenses. Las otras potencias industriales (Unión Europea, Japón, China) se verán a su vez impelidas a depreciar sus monedas a fin de proteger sus exportaciones.
Esto significa que estamos en las vísperas de una guerra de depreciaciones muy perniciosa para la economía mundial.

Por otra parte, tomando en cuenta que la inflación constituye por definición una erosión del valor de la moneda, y por ende del valor de toda deuda contraída previamente, la amortización y el pago de intereses de la astronómica deuda estadounidense (agravada por los descabellados gastos militares de George W. Bush), costarán menos, en términos reales, al Estado norteamericano.

Al mismo tiempo, quienes poseen masivamente bonos del Estado americano (en primer lugar China) se encontrarán con activos depreciados a causa de la inflación. Se producirá así un fenómeno similar al ocurrido con los llamados “petrodólares”: acciones y bonos emitidos en dólares que poseían los países productores de petróleo, que perdieron gran parte de su valor a causa de la inflación mundial de los años 70 y principios de los 80.

La inflación que se avecina (podemos anticiparla para 2010) será pues beneficiosa para el Estado norteamericano pero no así para sus acreedores.

El caso de los 70 nos ofrece una lección suplementaria: la superabundancia de dinero (como ocurre en periodos de inflación o como trata de crear actualmente el banco central estadounidense para combatir la recesión) no garantiza la recuperación de la actividad económica.
En aquellos años se produjo lo que se conoce con el nombre de “stagflación”, es decir, estancamiento económico con inflación
.
En el presente, nada nos permite descartar la posibilidad de un nuevo periodo de stagflación.
Todo parece indicar que la actitud pesimista de la viejita napolitana adquiere vigencia hoy, pues ante las perspectivas de inflación, guerra de depreciaciones y espectro de stagflación, no se vislumbra un mañana mejor en el horizonte de la economía mundial.

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To save energy, the aim was for residents to program their schedules for regulating home temperatures, which proved to be complex and not popular
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Anónimo dijo...

The Roku when you first start it up after connecting it to the internet and your TV or monitor has several channels
but each one is only a few clicks away to install and over the
internet the installation is very easy using an account.

The report which questioned 2046 US participants and was run by consulting firm Deloitte revealed that 65% want to connect the internet to their
home TV to twatch streams, this figure was 58% in the same survey in 2009.
Twonky: Streams music, photos and videos to compatible devices in the home.



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Anónimo dijo...

Even though there are only 19 focal points, as opposed to Nikon's 39, the quality is still unparalleled. Make a list of your requirements, and then choose the right model for yourself. It's slightly
different in terms of look and design, but in terms of functionality the only improvement is a digital zoom.


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Anónimo dijo...

So in place of walking at a constant tempo for say an hour, you'd probably transform items up by alternating brief bursts of extreme strolling for say a minute followed by a recovery time period with slower walking just after every single extreme period. Just maintain alternating for twenty minutes to begin and add time while you become more fit. You are able to use interval training with all phases in thegreen coffee bean extract to boost your effects.

Also after you do any form of exercise it's strongly suggested that you simply drink tons of
water in advance of through and immediately after to keep your
entire body properly hydrated.

Anónimo dijo...

So as an alternative to strolling at a steady pace for say
an hour, you'd probably adjust points up by alternating short bursts of intense strolling for say a minute followed by a recovery time period with slower strolling soon after just about every intense time period. Just maintain alternating for 20 minutes to start out and add time as you become far more fit. You could use interval training with all phases of your eyeglasses online to enhance your effects.

Also once you do any form of physical exercise it is actually strongly encouraged that you drink tons of water in advance of during and right after to keep your system appropriately hydrated.

Anónimo dijo...

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